Author Topic: NCSoft Stockwatch  (Read 166413 times)

gruegirl

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NCSoft Stockwatch
« on: September 20, 2012, 04:27:00 pm »
On a whim I looked at NCSoft's stock price. It took a nosedive after the vigil. It's still below guild-wars 2's release prices.

gruegirl

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2012, 04:34:02 pm »
In addition, Nexon (publisher of Maple Story) apperently owns about 15% of NCsoft, I suggest sending some of our well reasoned words to them as well, they bought said 15% in June.

Atlantea

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2012, 04:36:57 pm »
(Mr. Burns) Excellent! (/Mr. Burns)  8)


Is there any particular reason why there hasn't been a call for another of those Unity Protests?

Or to borrow a Captain Jack Sparrow line -

Are we simply waiting for "the opportune moment"?


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TimtheEnchanter

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2012, 05:03:02 pm »
It'll probably rebound. Surely it spooked some of the more timid investors though. Still pretty funny though.

I guess riots will affect prices, regardless of which dimension of existence they occur in.   :D

P51mus

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2012, 05:05:29 pm »
(Mr. Burns) Excellent! (/Mr. Burns)  8)


Is there any particular reason why there hasn't been a call for another of those Unity Protests?

Or to borrow a Captain Jack Sparrow line -

Are we simply waiting for "the opportune moment"?

Positron TF events today and Saturday.

And then there's other options, like the e-mail.

Teege

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2012, 05:14:42 pm »
If we don't have one planned we should. Crashing a server and hitting that many AP instances again I think would be huge.
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jacknomind

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2012, 05:37:57 pm »
Troughs follow peaks.  As others have said, don't read too much into this.  I imagine it's more a combination of short-term investors selling off assets for a quick profit and the announcement of a temporary halt on GW2 sales (a good decision, but not one that will make investors very happy).

gruegirl

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2012, 10:30:55 am »
Stock still hasn't recovered, I still think the timing of it taking a nosedive after the unity rally is pretty damning personally, but meh. I'm too psychologically invested in CoH not to hold out hope.

Shadowe

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2012, 11:27:18 am »
I work in finance where stock market fluctuations matter in a big way, and I have to agree with Gangrel, really. There are so many factors that affect share prices, it's almost unreal. The trick is to know what a share price actually means, more than anything else, and in simple terms, it's the price to buy a share, but the other important direction to come at it from is that it is also the price at which shares are sold. It drops when people are selling them.

Why do people sell shares?

Lack of confidence in the company.
Prediction of upcoming market conditions because of government (any government) announcements.
To liquidate assets.

The last two have no bearing on our specific situation, but the first one is a biggie. A drop in share price can indicate that investors believe that the company is making poor decisions, so they're trying to get out while the going is good.

For a company like NCsoft to see a depression in share price right after the launch of a major new product is something of a surprise (when viewed in isolation), and the announced closure of CoH could certainly be one of the reasons, but it is just as likely that the Korean government made a tax or budget announcement, or that the Korean Won is a weak currency right now which will also depress the share value.

Would anyone mind seeing if there's a Korean equivalent to the FTSE 100 or the Dow Jones indices, then compare the NCsoft share price to that? That will tell a more accurate story.
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Shadowe

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2012, 12:19:40 pm »
Okay, on 31 Aug 2012, the KOSPI closed down at 1905.12, and on the same day NCsoft shares closed down at 252,500 KWon.

Yesterday, the KOSPI closed at 1990.33, and NCsoft ended at 256,000 KWon.

Which mean that over the same period of time, Korea as a whole has increased by 4.77%, and NCsoft has grown by 1.39%.

That really doesn't tell us very much in and of itself, but if we go back just one more day, we get closing prices on the KOSPI of 1906.38 and NCsoft at 254,500.

This tells us that the change from before the CoH closure announcement was Korea at 4.40% growth and NCsoft at 0.59%

Such a limited set of data really doesn't tell a huge story, however we know that on the day of the announcement NCsoft dropped, then bounced back by Sep 7th to a high they hadn't seen since June 25th, and has been bouncing around a steadily decreasing figure since then. NCsoft is higher now than they were through most of the month of August, but while Korea as a whole has bounced back nicely from a dip around the 5th of Sept (climbing ever since, with fluctuations), NCsoft hit a peak on the 7th and has been seeing a downward trend almost exactly the opposite of the KOSPI.

So, what does all of this mean?

Honestly, I don't know. However it is not an unreasonable premise to suggest that because even though GW2 sales have been healthy, NCsoft is still going down, while Korea as a whole is trending upwards, then the negative press being generated off the back of the CoH closure announcement is actually hurting their bottom line.
The wisdom of Shadowe: Ghostraptor: The Shadowe is wise ...; FFM: Shadowe is no longer wise. ; Techbot_Alpha: Also, what Shadowe said. It seems he is still somewhat wise ; Bull Throttle: Shadowe was unwise in this instance...; Rock_Powerfist: in this instance Shadowe is wise.; Techbot_Alpha: Shadowe is very wise *nods*; Zortel: *Quotable line about Shadowe being wise goes here.*

gruegirl

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2012, 11:18:19 pm »
Update.

Stock continues its downward slip. It's still too early to mark it as a trend, but dammit I need something to believe in.

Chaos Ex Machina

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2012, 02:12:15 am »
Stock value is primarily determined through perception.  There is not a way to measure the impact of the efforts.

You should actually try to convince INVESTORS that the efforts have an effect and I think a decline after the gigantic launch can be a rather good argument.

srmalloy

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #12 on: September 27, 2012, 02:51:06 am »
In addition, Nexon (publisher of Maple Story) apperently owns about 15% of NCsoft, I suggest sending some of our well reasoned words to them as well, they bought said 15% in June.

Which might have more effect than first glance might indicate. On 8/27, All Things posted an article about Min Kim, the SVP of Live Games at Nexon, taking over as the CEO of Nexon America. The last paragraph in the article suggests that Mr. Kim has an attitude that may make him receptive to a plea to help save CoH:

Quote
Min Kim said he sees a big opportunity lying ahead in the traditional games space, where people play games for years at a time and for long stretches every month. As a younger gaming demographic grows up, and moves on from other experiences, such as Disney’s Club Penguin, “we’ll be in the sweet spot,” he said.

"...play games for years at a time and for long stretches every month..." describes CoH to a T, doesn't it?

Segev

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2012, 03:23:12 am »
Somebody remind me tomorrow to look into Mr. Kim a bit more closely. I have no idea if I can make a contact with him, but I have at least one idea on how I might try. (Tenuous at best.)

Sin_Stalker

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #14 on: September 27, 2012, 03:35:29 am »
Just to point out something *slightly* related here...

Apple stock has dropped quite a bit since the launch of the iPhone 5.

It is a good phone, it has some issues (same as the iPhone 4S. It sold a boat load (although apparently not as much as investors were thinking). Why is the apple stock price falling?

Side note: even "antennagate" for the iPhone4 didn't drop share prices by this large amounr....

Its no real improvement. Apple always does this too. They come out with a great product. You see a cheaper more widely used version (android) come out of it. Then Apple stops innovation and sticks within the newly created "box". Macs vs PCs. Then the laptop wars. Now its the smartphones. The one edge Apple had with the iphone was the relatively easy user interface but android has been getting and closer to this. Once Apple comes out with a new great concept or improvement, something that really sets the tone, their stocks will shoot back up. Until then, they will remain profitable but slowly shrinking sales back to what they were before. Kind of like their own mini-bubble that slowly let out air instead of popping lol.

The only way I see this really applying to NCsoft would be to get the word out more. Create dummy accounts and protest on other NCsoft gaming forums and servers. Create new characters and protest any new characters leaving the tutorial and being a "scab" or whatever the traitor term is. Not for a long time, but just enough for more gaming blogs and sites to take notice and put out stories about it.

We wouldn't just be refusing to part take in any NCsoft games but we would actually be protesting and boycotting the company. Any protesting in game(coh) is the same as gathering a bunch of friends and protesting in your backyard. To really get their attention, you have to go to their territory. You go to the lobby of the corporate headquarters or sit on the sidewalk in front of the courthouse, etc, etc. In this case since we are scattered across the globe, it would be there "living" games.

I'd be down if someone wants to organize a mass fake account creation and protesting on other NCsoft games. Wouldn't need to be around the clock now that I think of it... All we would need to do is find out when the each NCsoft game is at their peak play time. Then hit each game whenever that play time is. So for example, from 5 to 10 on friday for Aion, 7 to 11 on sunday for guild wars, etc, etc. None of their pay to play games but the ones that are free to download and try. The ones that have free trials, etc, etc.

IF we could get any attention, like NCsoft having to suspend their free trials for a short time or something, would be a great success in getting attention. And really that's what all this is about. We need attention like a kid with ADHD meaning attention bad or good... but within reason of course. Hm, maybe I should create a post and copy and paste this idea in it?

Victoria Victrix

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #15 on: September 27, 2012, 03:44:39 am »
Hmm.  Folks, anyone got an address for Nexxon?  Their big money-maker is Maple Story.  I could make the case CoH functioned rather like Maple Story for many of the players (the RPers specifically) with the rich ability to social-network within the game itself.  We might be able to do a back-door on NCSoft via Nexxon.
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Segev

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2012, 03:51:41 am »
Hmm.  Folks, anyone got an address for Nexxon?  Their big money-maker is Maple Story.  I could make the case CoH functioned rather like Maple Story for many of the players (the RPers specifically) with the rich ability to social-network within the game itself.  We might be able to do a back-door on NCSoft via Nexxon.
This is something that would be interesting, especially since the "in game advertisement" thread has gotten me thinking of ways that CoH could have an entire pure-social side opened up that would also make in-game advertising almost a DRAW for new players just interested in a more interactive online environment. With superheroes.

DrakeGrimm

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #17 on: September 27, 2012, 03:55:07 am »
This is something that would be interesting, especially since the "in game advertisement" thread has gotten me thinking of ways that CoH could have an entire pure-social side opened up that would also make in-game advertising almost a DRAW for new players just interested in a more interactive online environment. With superheroes.

Heck, half the time for me, CoH was a chat room with fancy visuals.

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Victoria Victrix

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #18 on: September 27, 2012, 04:07:48 am »
This is something that would be interesting, especially since the "in game advertisement" thread has gotten me thinking of ways that CoH could have an entire pure-social side opened up that would also make in-game advertising almost a DRAW for new players just interested in a more interactive online environment. With superheroes.

This is exactly what "Maple Story", which is what Nexxon's big win, is.  It's a 2D MMORPG integrated with social networking.  Maybe we ought to be working on Nexxon.
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Lionors

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #19 on: September 27, 2012, 05:31:03 am »
Actually, I'm thrilled to see someone in the game industry take Kim's stance.  I've long said that I thought the competition for the 18-24 male gamer was overrated.  Maybe they were the biggest buyers at first, but a *lot* has changed since MMOs began developing.  The traditional gaming crowd isn't the traditional gaming crowd anymore.

Besides which, just because a particular target market has gotten older, doesn't mean members of that market have lost their interest in gaming.  It just means their gaming patterns have likely changed.  Just think:  if you began gaming as an 18 year old in Everquest in 1999, you'd be 31 now.  You're working.  You might have a family.  You've got outside responsibilities you didn't have at 18...so instead of playing for hours, as you did at 18, you might have to fit in a few hours here and there.  You might not have the time or patience to jump from game to game as you once did.  Therefore, you're more likely to stick with a game you know and enjoy.  Fortunately, you probably have a bit more disposable income, so you're willing to maintain a subscription, even if your demands on the service aren't great.  What's not to like about gamers who keep steady subscriptions and don't overload the system?  Casual gamers can be a veritable cash cow, appealed to properly.

CoX hit that market perfectly, but I never did think they actually realized just how many sub-markets they could appeal to, nor did they really try.

The gaming target market is shifting, and those who shift focus and aim for it will prosper...just as those who keep blindly targeting one small group will not.  If Kim can be reached, my guess is, that's the angle that will carry the most weight: potential future profit.   Sounds like he'd be a great target to approach, though.  Just my two cents.

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« Last Edit: September 27, 2012, 05:36:22 am by Lionors »