Author Topic: NCSoft and some additional context  (Read 4088 times)

Lock-On

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NCSoft and some additional context
« on: October 03, 2012, 02:51:15 PM »
Cross-posted to CoH Forums.

So in trying to understand what's been going on with NCSoft and their announcment from yesterday, I've done a bit of digging around with some help.  I came across this article from 2009:

http://t-machine.org/index.php/2009/11/02/online-games-as-a-billion-dollar-business/#more-725

It's interesting reading and helps to explain some of the context of why NCSoft is making the decisions that it's making.  The basic gist of it is, NCSoft currently has more money then they can spend.  Really, literally, they can't spend all the money they have.  So from that standpoint we can see that offering to buy the IP won't really phase them much, because they don't need or want (yes, I know that sounds hard to believe) the money.  The risk to them is far greater that at some point in the future, someone else will come in and take money away from them with a better game/property.  So it makes sense in that context to hang on to the IP and bury it, to prevent the competition from getting a leg up on them, especially with a possible product they used to own.

But that's also why the SaveCOH movement can't let up with the pressure that we've created.  As Mercedes Lackey and others have pointed out, the actual acknowledgement of our efforts from NCSoft is shocking and unusual.  It means that people there are actually concerned that future earnings (the only thing they really care about) could be impacted at some point by the negative publicity that they are getting from this event.  So we have to keep going.  We have to keep threatening their future earnings and make them realize that the potential negative aspects of sitting on the IP and squashing our community will come back to bite them in the future.  Because I for one, believe that it will.

So stay strong, stay committed, and keep fighting the good fight.  This is far from over and we have to keep going.  We WILL win.

Quinch

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Re: NCSoft and some additional context
« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2012, 03:03:23 PM »
I'm not so sure about how much money they have to spend - otherwise they'd have enough to keep themselves from going into a loss.

eeek

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Re: NCSoft and some additional context
« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2012, 03:09:13 PM »
Lock, you just never stop amazing me!  ;D

Thanks for the insight - your conclusions are what I've been saying, too!  (I just, um... didn't, er... bother to research why that might be so.  *ahem*) 

There was no point whatsoever in last nights announcement, other than a spin job for damage control.  NONE!  Which means, what the good folks have been doing here has hit them where it hurt.

Can we do some more of this? 

Segev

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Re: NCSoft and some additional context
« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2012, 03:24:08 PM »
Excellent insights, here. Combine this with the "kibun" concept that just got posted, and we get a clearer picture of the actual difficulties. It's still a lot of guesswork (I haven't yet read the article linked in the OP; are we certain they ARE flush and not sure how to spend it?), but if we're right...then offering them a chance to match funds in that charity event on the 20th is crucial. Not only is it a place to spend cash that they might fear is festering and buy some good PR, but that same good PR is a chance to elevate their own kibun in an environment that is doubtless damaging it while simultaneously elevating the kibun of the CoH community and the charities involved, as well.

By itself, it won't move us towards solving the deeper issue that makes them leery of parting with it, but it can help forge a stronger personal bond between NCSoft and their player base. And refusing a request from a friend is extremely rude...

darkquill

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Re: NCSoft and some additional context
« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2012, 03:49:43 PM »
Interesting. So from the article, I might take away the fact that just because a game is making money, it might not be making enough money for me to hire the 6 good analysts for 1-2 months to figure out if it's making enough money. . .or will make enough money in the future for the next go-around of analysis. . .

Now that they've decided to close the studio, however, they shouldn't have to do all that analysis. They should just have one number that represents what they would like to get from it. Possibly, however, they're pricing the game according to what they've spent on it instead of projected future earnings, and that would be a bit hard to match, wouldn't it? Especially if they've already made their profits off it. It could be a kibun-related thing though.

Lock-On

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Re: NCSoft and some additional context
« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2012, 05:50:56 PM »
I don't think that NCSoft is pricing the game out at all.  There is no price for it because they have no intention of selling it.  If NCSoft is awash in more money then they can spend right now, then offering them more of what they can't use, provides them with no value.

However, if they sell the IP then there are 2 concrete and real problems that get created from that.  First there is the business issue of what happens if the successors of City of Heroes take the IP and make a better game that steals gamers away from NCSoft?  That is a direct hit on the bottom line.  In addition, since NCSoft used to own City of Heroes, now they've lost significant face for letting a profitable IP go.

Any solution that is offered to NCSoft that doesn't address these 2 key concerns is unlikely to sway them to let go of the IP.  This relates directly to the kibun thread and I have some more thoughts on that that I think are worth posting on.  Hmmm.....

Chaos Ex Machina

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Re: NCSoft and some additional context
« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2012, 05:57:09 PM »
I would suggest the possibility of letting them continue to publish, at least in a sense that has their name in the business.  Basically, the studio independent but publishing through them, like Cryptic.

Segev

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Re: NCSoft and some additional context
« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2012, 06:26:11 PM »
The key things we know are that NCSoft has a desire to cease support of CoH, and that they have not yet had an offer that would be worth selling the IP for.

We have learned a bit about kibun, which can be useful in re-opening negotiations.

We have this article, which hints that money-on-hand is not going to be persuasive. The implication is that they're looking at future profits. Which closing CoH won't get them, but which not spending money on it might make easier to quantify.

My thought, based on these facts and conjectures, is that if they could secure a portion of CoH's revenue stream for the future but not have to invest in it further out of their own resources, it would be better than a one-time sale or simply shutting it down. This could be accomplished by allowing NCSoft to retain a large partial ownership of the new studio that forms, but have no active ongoing investment therein. It would, however, then be crucial to NOT permit them to have any managerial control, because they want to wash their hands of the costs and, in order for it to succeed, they will have to not be engaging in their standard managerial practices. We need to let the company run on its own, with dividends from the profits being all that NCSoft sees any longer.

I propose, in exchange for dividing the shares that NCSoft will own into two kinds (voting and dividend) and only allowing NCSoft to keep the ones that parcel out profits while leaving the voting shares in control of other investors - perhaps Brian C. himself as the man who is going to head the studio - that NCSoft be permitted a nonexclusive license to use the IP however they like, save that they can't sell it without giving it up, in perpetuity.

That is, they can make CoH products if they want. They can use the images and the like. They are, effectively, the best publisher to use in Asia if Paragon Studios wanted to market something new out there because they have the marketing rights already. But they can't sublet those rights; they can use them, sit on them, or sell them, but if they sell them, the new holder owns them and NCSoft can't use the IP anymore. At the same time, NCSoft can't tell anybody else NOT to use the IP; they only have a licensing right to use. This leaves Paragon free to do whatever they like with the products under the IP, without fear of NCSoft yanking it away.

Lock-On

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Re: NCSoft and some additional context
« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2012, 06:32:58 PM »
Heh.  I think I just rewrote your post Segev.  Only not as good.  =(

http://www.cohtitan.com/forum/index.php/topic,5454.0.html

Segev

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Re: NCSoft and some additional context
« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2012, 08:19:48 PM »
Hey, your posts on this topic have helped me refine my ideas. I'm not sure which of us posted first. Let's not say one is "not as good" as the other, but instead compare ideas and work on refining them further!

Lock-On

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Re: NCSoft and some additional context
« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2012, 08:28:56 PM »
Agreed!  And done!  Thanks Seg!

DrakeGrimm

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Re: NCSoft and some additional context
« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2012, 08:33:35 PM »
Hey, your posts on this topic have helped me refine my ideas. I'm not sure which of us posted first. Let's not say one is "not as good" as the other, but instead compare ideas and work on refining them further!

By your powers combined...



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Segev

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Re: NCSoft and some additional context
« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2012, 08:47:41 PM »
Sadly, ever since I concocted a means whereby I could conceivably make every industry in the world carbon-neutral by making myself have - on paper - the biggest carbon footprint anybody has ever had, and make a tidy profit off of it...my friends have declared I'm not allowed to have any plans (business or otherwise) inspired by eco-villains. ;_;

Lock-On

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Re: NCSoft and some additional context
« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2012, 08:50:38 PM »
This sounds strikingly similar to a plan once orchestrated by the evil Dr. Doofensmurtz.  I don't suppose you have to watch out for marsupial-based spies keeping tabs on you, I hope?

Segev

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Re: NCSoft and some additional context
« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2012, 09:24:37 PM »
I only even know that that's a Phineas and Ferb reference because somebody told me about Doofenshmirtz once. ^^; So no, I wasn't inspired by that; I've never seen that particular show.

I was just really annoyed by what I saw as effectively a scam being enacted, and figured I could illustrate it best by outlining a business plan to capitalize on it. (Needless to say, I got no takers.  :roll: )

dwturducken

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Re: NCSoft and some additional context
« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2012, 09:30:58 PM »
At the risk of derailing the thread, you MUST watch at least one episode of Phineas and Ferb! You will thank us for it.
I wouldn't use the word "replace," but there's no word for "take over for you and make everything better almost immediately," so we just say "replace."

Valjean

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Re: NCSoft and some additional context
« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2012, 10:58:38 PM »
So here's the thing. It's public knowledge that COH was making money, and most of the other NCW titles weren't. And it seems NCsoft Korea was sitting on a ton of cash as well. The amount of money they could save by shutting down COH and moving it to GW seems like pocket change to me.

What else are we missing here?