3. A new group who do have an organization is making an overture to NCSoft. NCSoft has shown a willingness to talk - where are they now on the IP? Who knows as talks with Chris Chung have shown things at NCSoft have changed. In fact the new group approaching NCSoft has talked/is talking with Chris Chung and others to find out how to move forward.
At the end of the day, it's going to be a matter of price and finance. If Chris Chung (or anyone, for that matter) negotiates with NCSoft for CoH, the price has to be right for multiple parties.
First, NCSoft has to agree that the price is worth letting CoH's IP and engine walk out the door and risking it being out there on the market again. Second, he has to keep his group of investors together and have a credible plan to make a profit for them.
Unfortunately we'll never know why negotiation broke down between Paragon Studios and NCsoft.
Unless someone that was there chooses to impart that knowledge to us.
Who knows? It may have been something very simple indeed that both parties couldn't agree on - or far more complex than that.
It likely came down to money. It wouldn't surprise me if NCSoft agreed to a reasonable price and a major investor or two from Paragon's side got cold feet and backed out. Believe it or not, that happens all the time. A deal gets ironed out, the negotiators take it back to investors, and the investing company re-runs the numbers and gets cold feet.
Let's say, just for kicks, that NCSoft agreed to sell City of Heroes (IP and engine). As a ten year old game, you'd likely have to re-release it to the market soon because it has a limited shelf life (and growth opportunities from what it was) and a high likelihood that someone's going to develop a super hero competitor (quite possibly with Marvel's license or Disney buying a game studio to make a game). To accomplish that, you'd need a studio in place, have to hire a significant number of former CoH developers, and have some form of update pipeline in place and ready to move. And, on top of that, you'll have to have the customer/tech support either already in place or quickly hired and trained.
In all likelihood, you're probably looking at a substantial investment to get CoH out and to the market quickly to capitalize on that investment and avoiding capitalizing on a market that's relatively lacking for superhero games.
Taking into consideration that the game is ten years old and there will be a strong likelihood that another competitor will find its way to the market within 5 years, investors would likely need to make its investment back in profits over the course of 2-3 years from purchase. That's why price is key and that's likely why past deals fell apart. There are so many reasons for an investor to get cold feet and say 'no.'
Like I said before. I'm not saying it
couldn't happen. But, the odds are low. But, I certainly hope I'm wrong. I'm not going to get my hopes up. The odds would be significantly better if NCSoft went bankrupt and had its assets sold to pay creditors. I could see someone like Valve picking up the game and bargain bin prices.
