Author Topic: NCSoft Stockwatch  (Read 714606 times)

FatherXmas

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2240 on: May 12, 2014, 10:44:18 AM »
Couldn't happen to nicer people!   ;)

The entire Korean online gaming industry?  What did they do?

Over the following three days, NCSOFT stock recovered over half of that one day loss.  Still up over 50%since their all time low back in Jan 2013.  Bullish analyst still think it'll go back up to 300K.  :roll:

Oh BTW, WildStar goes live June 6th I think.  I still have my doubts about the subscription model for a new MMO.  TESO was unimpressive and buggy as anything.  And I find WildStar overly complex.

1Q numbers later this week.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2014, 10:52:26 AM by FatherXmas »
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JanessaVR

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2241 on: May 12, 2014, 06:24:59 PM »
The entire Korean online gaming industry?  What did they do?
Collateral damage.  As long as NCSoft was hurt, even briefly, I cheer.

Aggelakis

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2242 on: May 12, 2014, 06:50:33 PM »
*shakes head*
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malonkey1

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2243 on: May 13, 2014, 01:07:18 AM »
I disagree. We can't rejoice in the destruction of a national industry just because a company we hate dies with it. Collateral damage is a bad thing, remember?
BadWolf: "The point that JaguarX is trying to make, of course, is that City of Heroes is like a tree. And Google is like a Toyota...Corolla...? Which would make NCSoft a trespasser, shot by...um, Mister T...which is good, because diplomacy...?"

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Twisted Toon

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2244 on: May 13, 2014, 01:14:32 AM »
I'm guessing any one particular person's viewpoint on that would depend on whether they were more Red-side or Blue-side.

Personally, I'm more Blue-side that Red-side.
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Beltor

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2245 on: May 15, 2014, 10:16:14 PM »
The changes to SK gaming could have interesting repercussions. If it severely damages the income of SK gaming companies, they may be forced to focus on their overseas branches. NC$oft has a bad habit of ignoring and neglecting their western branch. Now they might need to focus on it more to offset losses. Maybe they're even thinking of resurrecting COH. Not likely, but severe losses can make a company try desperate things. Their bad actions of the past may still be too bad an image to fix though. The irony ;D

microc

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2246 on: May 16, 2014, 10:11:50 PM »

chuckv3

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2247 on: May 17, 2014, 12:46:49 AM »
The changes to SK gaming could have interesting repercussions. If it severely damages the income of SK gaming companies, they may be forced to focus on their overseas branches. NC$oft has a bad habit of ignoring and neglecting their western branch. Now they might need to focus on it more to offset losses. Maybe they're even thinking of resurrecting COH. Not likely, but severe losses can make a company try desperate things. Their bad actions of the past may still be too bad an image to fix though. The irony ;D

Oh, please don't let it be them that revives the game. PLEASE NO.

JanessaVR

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2248 on: May 17, 2014, 03:06:28 AM »
Oh, please don't let it be them that revives the game. PLEASE NO.
Unless they sell it, no one else could, unfortunately.  Not that it will actually happen, they love our pain far too much.

Nyx Nought Nothing

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2249 on: May 17, 2014, 03:00:09 PM »
Unless they sell it, no one else could, unfortunately.  Not that it will actually happen, they love our pain far too much.
Nah. Setting aside that the NCsoft management lineup has changed up a fair bit since the shutdown, they've never really cared about making CoH fans suffer. Unless there's money in it, and the opposite is rather obviously true. (Not that it's likely to have lost them a very large amount of money, but it's still a net negative.) i wouldn't be surprised if there were at least a couple people on the NCsoft board currently who didn't look at CoH and wonder "Why the hell did we shut this down?" in private at the very least when considering how big superhero properties have become in international pop culture as well as the advantages to maintaining goodwill and a foothold in more markets outside Korea. CoH may not have been a cash cow, but it was profitable even without much of a promotional budget or efforts to tie into the popularity of superheroes.
To be fair the decision to shut CoH down did make sense in the context of NCsoft's general policies and business strategy at the time. In hindsight it might not have been the best move, but it seems pretty clear that NCsoft management was perhaps a bit too insular and out of touch with the demographics that their products are aimed at, which is why the volume of the outcry over the shutdown surprised them at the time. Not that this is even slightly unique to NCsoft or the MMO industry, it's common in every industry.
In any event as long as they can get a deal that they're happy with i'm pretty confident NCsoft would much rather sell CoH and make money off it than hold onto it and get nothing. The company is made up of an ever-changing group of people all hoping to make money, not some eldritch entity that feeds on emotions. While emotions like embarrassment might figure into being reluctant to go back on a decision money and changes in the management lineup do a lot to offset that.
So far so good. Onward and upward!

FatherXmas

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2250 on: May 20, 2014, 03:18:34 AM »
Been meaning to update 1Q14 numbers.

Yes, net income is off 30% year over year while overall income is off only 4%.

Income sources by region.  Percentage before is contribution from that region, percentage after is change year over year.

(53.0%) Korea down 20.8%
(13.1%) NA down 5.4%
(2.9%) EU down 64.9%
(4.6%) Japan down 36.4%
(1.3%) Taiwan down 6%
(25.0%) Royalties up 314.9% (B&S in China saves the day)


Income sources by game, excludes royalties.  Percentage before is contribution from that game, percentage after is change year over year.

(23.0%) Lineage down 37.9%
(6.5%) Lineage II down 18.5%
(12.5%) AION down 21.4%
(10.8%) B&S (Korea) up 16.5%
(14.1%) GW2 down 30.9%
(8.1%) Other up 13.1%

Overall this is down 23.9%

The missing 25%of income in the 2nd list is from previously mentioned royalties and is not broken down by game.


GW2 launched in China May 15th.  B&S in Japan May 20th.  WildStar launches June 3rd in NA and EU.

Stock took a hit as income from games was the lowest in 21 months.

KDB Daewoo, an analyst/cheerleader, reduced it's target price from 310,000 to 280,000 (stock currently at 186,500, down 9.5%).  They also mention that Lineage will introduce a new class, first time in six years on June 11th which may boost it's income.  They also mention the stock is heavily shorted, meaning people are expecting it to go down.  If unexpected good news crops up and the stock starts to rise, it may cause a short squeeze which will cause a quick rise in price as investors cancel their short positions.
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JanessaVR

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2251 on: May 29, 2014, 07:08:17 PM »
The company is made up of an ever-changing group of people all hoping to make money, not some eldritch entity that feeds on emotions.
Considering that their behavior is indistinguishable from an eldritch entity that feeds on emotions, I believe my confusion can be forgiven.

Little David

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2252 on: June 01, 2014, 11:16:53 PM »
In any event as long as they can get a deal that they're happy with i'm pretty confident NCsoft would much rather sell CoH and make money off it than hold onto it and get nothing. The company is made up of an ever-changing group of people all hoping to make money, not some eldritch entity that feeds on emotions. While emotions like embarrassment might figure into being reluctant to go back on a decision money and changes in the management lineup do a lot to offset that.

Considering that their behavior is indistinguishable from an eldritch entity that feeds on emotions, I believe my confusion can be forgiven.

That's a fair point, though corporate culture can inform and normalize the actions taken by new blood in the executive positions, I think. It would take some radically new leadership to consider selling dead IPs; it's more apparent from NCSoft's past that they're more committed to sitting on the IPs they kill in order to prevent a Ray Kroc scenario (that's the guy who bought McDonald's from their original owners and made it into the global conglomerate that it is today).

Whyaylooh

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2253 on: August 14, 2014, 12:25:51 AM »
The 2Q14 earnings report was released today.  In summary:
  • Numbers in general have rebounded back to 4Q13 levels, as well as grown year-over-year, attributed to the release of Wildstar, and the China release of Guild Wars 2.  Indeed, while other regions experienced moderate recoveries from the 1Q14 collapse, US/EU sales nearly doubled last quarter, much of that due to what Wildstar added to their coffers.
  • As for their other properties, both Lineage titles gained in sales, Blade and Soul held steady, and Aion and Guild Wars 2 continued to decline.  (Which makes one question: If Guild Wars 2 in China helped bolster numbers, how bad off would it have been?)
  • Marketing expenses spiked to market Wildstar, spending nearly as much in 2Q14 as they did in the last three quarters combined.  (Where was this three or four years ago?  *sigh*)

On news of this, NCSoft stock immediately jumped 10,000 won, to 154,500, from yesterday's close of 144,500, though that jump seems to be leveling back off a bit.

As always, the reports can be found here:  http://global.ncsoft.com/global/ir/earnings.aspx

That is all.

FatherXmas

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2254 on: August 14, 2014, 10:34:14 PM »
I was out when this came out.

For those wishing schadenfreude on NCSOFT, well their stock did hit a yearly low just before this came out.  Last two days it bounced up 7+% but still down 37+% from their yearly high and 36+% since the start of the year.

The WildStar numbers only represent a month.  Since it's a subscription game the 3Q numbers will show how well it's growing and retaining players.  In comparison, GW2's first month's numbers were better two years ago.  It's next quarter was explosive but it's B2P rather than P2P.

China's numbers should be included under the Royalties information and they are down from last quarter even though GW2 opened there.  But GW2 required players in China to buy the game first and that may have seriously impacted the number of players playing.  It's normally a F2P MMO environment in China.  The reduced royalties may also be a negative indicator how well B&S is holding on in China.

B&S is now available to play in Japan and is 13% of B&S's income outside of China.  NCSOFT took the interesting tack of commissioning an Anime series to promote the game.   You can catch it on Crunchyroll.  Still nothing about B&S coming to NA/EU anytime soon.

All 5 games they call out in their quarterly report last year are down year over year.  Combined, by 21%.  WildStar and increased royalties allowed both income and profits rise year over year.  Hence the stock rebound.

Don't worry, investors and analysts can be a pessimistic lot.  Even KDB Daewoo, one of their biggest cheerleaders were unhappy with NCSOFT in a report a month ago, asking for a dividend boost and cut their target to 220,000 KrW.  That's below where the stock price was 5 months ago instead of being absurdly unheard of, but still 40+% higher than today.
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JanessaVR

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2255 on: August 18, 2014, 05:51:35 PM »
Actually, if the efforts by Ironwolf's friends/contacts eventually come out in our favor, I have no further quarrel with NCSoft.

No intention of ever trying out any of their other games (once burned, twice shy, and I can't trust that they'll be there tomorrow), but I will wish them no further ill if we get our city back.

Beltor

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2256 on: August 21, 2014, 10:13:41 PM »
Actually, if the efforts by Ironwolf's friends/contacts eventually come out in our favor, I have no further quarrel with NCSoft.

No intention of ever trying out any of their other games (once burned, twice shy, and I can't trust that they'll be there tomorrow), but I will wish them no further ill if we get our city back.


Same for me.

Thunder Glove

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2257 on: August 22, 2014, 08:40:25 AM »
I have no intention of playing anything else by NCSoft, but mostly becuase I'm not really interested in the whole Elves-and-Wizards-generic-fantasy setting.  If I want that, I can go play WoW.

Kosmos

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2258 on: August 22, 2014, 09:38:58 AM »
Don't worry, investors and analysts can be a pessimistic lot.  Even KDB Daewoo, one of their biggest cheerleaders were unhappy with NCSOFT in a report a month ago, asking for a dividend boost and cut their target to 220,000 KrW.  That's below where the stock price was 5 months ago instead of being absurdly unheard of, but still 40+% higher than today.

I thought KDB Daewoo's projections of nearly 400k were either an attempt at comedy or someone trolling the regulators.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2014, 09:45:44 AM by Kosmos »

FatherXmas

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #2259 on: August 22, 2014, 02:37:49 PM »
I thought KDB Daewoo's projections of nearly 400k were either an attempt at comedy or someone trolling the regulators.

They had a target of 600K after 3Q2011 numbers hit.
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