Author Topic: NCSoft Stockwatch  (Read 714304 times)

Victoria Victrix

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #380 on: November 25, 2012, 03:24:22 AM »

As to the IP, he considers it in character for Kim and company to shove CoH into an archive forever. I think they might even erase the code out of spite.

In any case, the discussion I had with him indicates that lights-out on the first really is the end of Paragon City, barring a pirated copy of the code on a pirate server.


Two things I am not worried about, Collette.  Because it is not just Kim and NCSoft that are involved.  At this point, it's clear that Nexon is pulling some strings too, and Nexon is Japanese, not Korean.  They have no reason to support Kim's xenophobia, and they are not (according to MY source) at all happy about the nosedive the stock they bought has taken.

First, they cannot erase the code, short of tracking down everyone that has a copy of CoH on his or her machine.  MOST of the code resides on our individual computers.  That is why CoH can run on crap connections that won't run other games; what the server code does is talk to the Mapservers to tell our machines where on the map our characters are relative to everyone else's character and all the NPCs in the zone--plus some of the NPC dialogue (some was moved there to avoid leaks in the "Who Will Die" arcs.  We have the game code resident on our own machines, and the maps.  This is how you get the demorecords to play back without a connection to the server.  What you do not see in the demorecord is what the mapservers take care of.  Could they erase the mapserver code?  Yes, but some people have copies of that, too, for perfectly legal reverse engineering purposes.  Plus, I have ZERO doubt that some of the devs have backup copies on their own machines at home.  It might be a pain in the butt to put the pieces back together again, but it can be done.  Could you erase the NPC dialogue?  Sure, but what would be the point--assuming anyone at NCSoft knows where to find it?  The very fact that NCSoft was so obdurate about being of any help means that they essentially know nothing about how the game runs or what lives where.

Could they erase the customer account database?  Maybe.  But that's a legal gray area.  Plus, there are CoH customers that subscribe to other NCSoft games.  You erase their data and you lose them for good.  This means they would have to go through the NCSoft Customer Database and identify only those who were CoH and only CoH subscribers and erase their accounts individually.  Not too hard to do for a handful of Facebook pests...a lot more difficult for people you are trying to keep.  And the stockholders would be furious, because that's spitting in the face of customers who might decide to subscribe to Bits and Tits, GW or GW2.

Could they lock up the IP?  Maybe....but that is where they get into something no CEO ever wants to face--the wrath of the stockholders.  If a legitimate buyer with the right price came along, and they can no longer throw up a smoke-screen of "legal liabilities" because the game has been shut down and is effectively dead, if they did NOT sell, the stockholders (with Nexon leading the charge) are going to throw a revolt and put someone in charge who WILL sell.

That might just happen anyway, with Nexon holding a fire sale on all the IPs that NCSoft has been squatting on, should anyone show any interest in them.
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Undercat

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #381 on: November 25, 2012, 04:08:20 AM »
That might just happen anyway, with Nexon holding a fire sale on all the IPs that NCSoft has been squatting on, should anyone show any interest in them.

I, too, am secretly hoping that NCsoft goes belly up just so the IP they're sitting on comes oozing out of their carcass. I'm not sure I'm quite as optimistic about that prospect seeing reality as you may be, but one can always hope.  :P
« Last Edit: November 25, 2012, 04:14:15 AM by Undercat »

Quinch

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #382 on: November 25, 2012, 04:11:46 AM »
Yeah, as amusing as the prospect is, with three quarters of their income coming from Korea, bombing everywhere else would just be a setback as long as they can keep pumping out grinders.

dwturducken

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #383 on: November 25, 2012, 04:35:57 AM »
Only so much productivity can overcome a lack of consumer confidence. I'd be interested in ownership demographics based on geography (percentage of owned stocks by country).  I suspect that the majority of their stocks are not held by Westerners.
I wouldn't use the word "replace," but there's no word for "take over for you and make everything better almost immediately," so we just say "replace."

Kaiser Tarantula

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #384 on: November 25, 2012, 05:05:24 AM »
I'm still seeing more green in their price change.  I'm not happy about this.

Of course, they're still floundering pretty hard and can't seem to stay above 165k won, but I'd love for them to dip below 150k, just to see what panic it induces.

Turjan

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #385 on: November 25, 2012, 03:38:30 PM »
At this point, it's clear that Nexon is pulling some strings too, and Nexon is Japanese, not Korean.  They have no reason to support Kim's xenophobia, and they are not (according to MY source) at all happy about the nosedive the stock they bought has taken.

Actually, technically Nexon IS a Korean company (the company was set up in Korea in 1994), but its stock is floated on the Japanese stock market instead of in Korea. It gets muddy though because I believe their global HQ is in Japan...and both the new CEO of Nexon US and his predecessor are Korean, and they seem to have a greater degree of autonomy from Nexon HQ than NCsoft West ever had from NCsoft KR.

What does that all mean to us?
*shrug*
I have no idea - I've given up trying to work out what the NC-Nexonsoft bosses are up to. In my book, they're both barking mad and completely out of touch with the games market of the future.

I too have heard that Nexon is none too happy about the share crisis of their new best buddy and corporate bedmate NCsoft. From what I can tell, the shareholders aren't happy about TJ Kim's silence as to why he undersold 2/3 of his shares to Nexon. They were happy initally because it looked like a hand in hand merger of corporate giants, each promising to lend its own strength for the good of both...but now that shine has worn off and Kim is still being as silent to his shareholders as he is to us about the reasons for closing CoH, confidence has ebbed away along with the share price.

What puzzles me is Nexon being as unhappy as they are. TJ Kim has been their biggest rival in Korea for many years, so if anyone's going to have a shot at knowing what makes him tick, it's them. So if his behaviour since the share sale is confusing THEM then what chance have WE got of knowing what the hell is going on? ???

My bet is still on TJ Kim wanting to gradually cash himself out of NCsoft and still keep as many memories in his dragon's hoard as he can - which for us means he won't sell the CoH IP...but nor will he let Nexon have it either. And even if it becomes worthless to hang on to, he'll keep it anyway because that's simply what he does.

Colette

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #386 on: November 25, 2012, 03:51:25 PM »
Naturally I hope V.V. is right and the IP gets sold quickly. And yes, the re-emergence of CoH from the death of NCSoft would certainly satisfy me. But like Turjan, I have a bad feeling about the nature of Kim himself. And I remember some lovely videogame properties that have gone by the wayside when their company collapsed.

Anyway, reported my source's feelings. Beyond that, I'm as much in the dark as anyone, and eager to hear Monday's announcement.

Undercat

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #387 on: November 25, 2012, 05:32:39 PM »
Actually, Kim is very much a minority shareholder at this point, and the IP for all of the games in his "dragon's horde" is owned by NCsoft's shareholders, not by Kim. Whatever that nut might have wanted to do with NCsoft and CoX will soon become quite irrelevant if shareholders lose confidence in his leadership and replace him.

Not to say that his replacement is guaranteed to be any better, of course....

TimtheEnchanter

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #388 on: November 25, 2012, 05:39:59 PM »
I'm still seeing more green in their price change.  I'm not happy about this.

Of course, they're still floundering pretty hard and can't seem to stay above 165k won, but I'd love for them to dip below 150k, just to see what panic it induces.

I think the Christmas season cancels all bets against NCsoft. Or pretty much ANY toy/entertainment company for that matter.

Ammon

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #389 on: November 26, 2012, 02:34:37 AM »
Actually, Kim is very much a minority shareholder at this point
Yes, he sold out 15% to Nexon, retaining around 10% then of his previous 25% share.  The fact that he sold three-fifths of his entire holdings is what has shaken the value so hard.  A CEO selling his shares short is always a worry.  Doing it before a major launch that is supposed to raise the value, even more worry.  Selling the majority of his shares is just ... suicidal, on top of selling them short, right before the big new launches.

One of the more interesting rumours I heard recently is that yes, the whole Garriott thing is very much part of these seemingly crazy decisions, but not as others are supposing.  What I heard is that NCsoft don't feel very confident in their handling of the US, and feel that the damage of the Garriott case has only weakened their position in the West, and so the deal with Nexon is primarily to use Nexon's strengths as an international distributor and monetizer, while NCsoft focus on their strength of developing original games.

No idea where the CoH saga falls into all this, but it is possible that CoH having been originally developed by Cryptic made it no longer fit into their new strategy, while selling it was something they were not sure about (did the license include all rights to resell as they wished?).

Certainly, the only major gains that can be seen for NCsoft in this deal with Nexon is gaining access to a company far better at International business and marketing.  What would possibly confirm this is looking to see if the CEO of NCsoft reinvested much of his money from selling NCsoft shares into buying Nexon shares.

LuchRi

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #390 on: November 26, 2012, 03:36:52 AM »
The question I have is, would that kind of trade at a time like this constitute insider trading? If so Kim could be looking at a MASSIVE legal ogre hammer coming his way unless he was very sneaky or very cleaver about it.

dwturducken

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #391 on: November 26, 2012, 03:43:48 AM »
(<snicker> "Cleaver!")

I don't know what the laws are in SK or Japan, but it's usually difficult to prove insider trading. If the stocks continue to tumble, the repercussions may be bad enough without jail time. Oh, but a body can dream, though, right?
I wouldn't use the word "replace," but there's no word for "take over for you and make everything better almost immediately," so we just say "replace."

LuchRi

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #392 on: November 26, 2012, 03:47:39 AM »
I would have to imaigne that selling stock in a company of which you are CEO and then buying up stock in the company that you sold it to wuld be at least somewhat illegal, even without brining CoH into the picture. shortsell the stock and then put your money in with the people you shortsell to... seems kinda out there to me.

Unless the CoH closure was to distract FROM his stock sell in foreign markets.

dwturducken

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #393 on: November 26, 2012, 03:55:20 AM »
I'm very tired from a long weekend with extended family, so I apologize if my memory is faulty, but I thought that sort of "trade" was common in mergers, at least in the States.
I wouldn't use the word "replace," but there's no word for "take over for you and make everything better almost immediately," so we just say "replace."

BryanSnowden

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #394 on: November 26, 2012, 05:28:44 AM »
IF, I were to guess (Or rather - scour the net for much longer than I care to calculate or even guess),
I'd bet it has something to do with THIS => http://www.mmoculture.com/2012/11/gstar-2012-mabinogi-ii-arena-developed-by-nexon-and-ncsoft/
I could be wrong,  but looks like he took his "eggs" and put them in a new Nexon/NCsoft "basket"... ?

I don't know much of anything about this *mabinogi 2* - and "Call me Ishmael..." = But, I suspect it's closer to the "WoW-Killer" they've been hunting for like the 'White Whale' for all these years now, no?

So, that would make it "Mabi-nogi Dick" right? ;)

Or it could, depending on how that game goes over in the long run - particularly if it flops!
That is there business model now right? "Flush" money on game after game until they find the next WoW = before someone else beats them to it? They're really just gambling at this point - albeit with other people's money & lives - it's still gambling = Gambling on them finding the next WoW, the REAL trick is funding the finding of it - Before people stop giving them money to hunt with?
Or until their Corporate "Golden-Parachutes" are big enough they don't care anymore, whichever comes first.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2012, 07:14:06 AM by BryanSnowden »

Turjan

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #395 on: November 26, 2012, 12:43:33 PM »
I don't know much of anything about this *mabinogi 2* - and "Call me Ishmael..." = But, I suspect it's closer to the "WoW-Killer" they've been hunting for like the 'White Whale' for all these years now, no?

I knew nowt about it either, but a bit of snuffling around leads me to believe Mabinogi II : Arena will have more in common with the good ol' coin op Gauntlet than an MMO. Check out the games expo gameplay vids here :-

http://news.mmosite.com/content/2012-11-08/mabinogi_ii_arena_camera_footage_from_game_demo.shtml

The article even mentions a choice of 4 characters : Archer, Bard, Heavy Hammer, Sword+Shield (to me that reads as Elf, Wizard, Barbarian, Valkyrie). It's gory too, with blood splashing everywhere. Everything I've seen about it so far screams "games cabinet in an arcade" to me.

So they think resurrecting old coin ops with a modern graphic makeover is the brave new future that will save their share prices? How odd ???

malonkey1

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #396 on: November 26, 2012, 12:48:51 PM »
I knew nowt about it either, but a bit of snuffling around leads me to believe Mabinogi II : Arena will have more in common with the good ol' coin op Gauntlet than an MMO. Check out the games expo gameplay vids here :-

http://news.mmosite.com/content/2012-11-08/mabinogi_ii_arena_camera_footage_from_game_demo.shtml

The article even mentions a choice of 4 characters : Archer, Bard, Heavy Hammer, Sword+Shield (to me that reads as Elf, Wizard, Barbarian, Valkyrie). It's gory too, with blood splashing everywhere. Everything I've seen about it so far screams "games cabinet in an arcade" to me.

So they think resurrecting old coin ops with a modern graphic makeover is the brave new future that will save their share prices? How odd ???

...I like it. Old games are fun. I see no reason not to resurrect them. SO, NCSoft, Nexon: While you are horrible people, I applaud your quest to bring arcade-style beat-em-ups back to the fore.
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The Fifth Horseman

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #397 on: November 28, 2012, 06:46:57 AM »
Looks like the stock stabilized at 167 000 KRW. That's around $150 per share.
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The end occurred pretty much as we predicted: all servers redlining until midnight... and then no servers to go around.

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #398 on: November 30, 2012, 06:04:30 PM »
One the biggest entertainment franchises was saved by a letter writing campaign. Now it has 4 spin-off tv shows an animated series, eleven movies plus 1 in the works, multiple games And pretty much started "Fan-Cons". Thanks Mr. Roddenberry  Earn free bitcoin

Quinch

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Re: NCSoft Stockwatch
« Reply #399 on: November 30, 2012, 06:12:01 PM »
Another drop? Or something more specific?